Category Archives: Happiness

Why I’m Mostly Against Universal Suicide Screenings in Schools

I’ve been in repeated conversations with numerous concerned people about the risks and benefits of suicide screenings for youth in schools. Several years ago, I was in a one-on-one coffee shop discussion of suicide prevention with a local suicide prevention coordinator. She said, more as a statement than a question, “Who could be against school-based depression and suicide screenings?”

I slowly raised my hand, forced a smile, and confessed my position.

The question of how and why I’m not in favor of school-based mental health and suicide screenings is a complex one. On occasion, screenings will work, students at high-risk will be identified, and tragedy is averted. That’s obviously a great outcome. But I believe the mental health casualties from broad, school-based screenings tend to outweigh the benefits. Here’s why.

  1. Early identification of depression and suicide in youth will result in early labeling in school systems; even worse, young people will begin labeling themselves as being “ill” or “defective.” Those labels are sticky and won’t support positive outcomes.
  2. Most youth who experience depressive symptoms and suicide ideation are NOT likely to die by suicide. Odds are that students who don’t report suicidal ideation are just as likely to die by suicide. As the scientists put it, suicidal ideation is not a good predictor of suicide. Also, depression symptoms generally come and go among teenagers. Most teens will recover from depressive symptoms without intensive interventions.
  3. After a year or two of school-based screenings, the students will know the drill. They will realize that if they endorse depression symptoms and suicidal items that they’ll have to experience a pretty horrible assessment and referral process. When I talk to school personnel, they tell me that, (a) they already know the students who are struggling, and (b) in year 2 of screenings, the rates of depression and suicidality plummet—because students are smart and they want to avoid the consequences of being open about their emotional state.
  4. About 10-15% of people who complete suicide screenings feel worse afterward. We don’t really want that outcome.
  5. There’s no evidence that school-based screenings are linked to reductions in suicide rates.   

For more info on this, you can check out a brief commentary I published in the American Psychologist with my University of Montana colleague, Maegan Rides At The Door. The commentary focuses on suicide assessment with youth of color, but our points work for all youth. And, citations supporting our perspective are included.

Here are a few excerpts from the commentary:

 Standardized questionnaires, although well-intended and sometimes helpful, can be emotionally activating and their use is not without risk (Bryan, 2022; de Beurs et al., 2016).

In their most recent recommendations, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (2022) concluded that the evidence supporting screening for suicide risk among children and adolescents was “insufficient” (p. 1534). Even screening proponents acknowledge, “There is currently little to no data to show that screening decreases suicide attempt or death rates” (Cwik et al., 2020, p. 255). . . . Across settings, little to no empirical evidence indicates that screening assessments provide accurate, predictive, or useful information for categorizing risk (Bryan, 2022).

And here’s the link to the commentary:

How Evil Works

This post is a continuation of my focus on kindness, positive psychology, and becoming the best possible versions of ourselves. Lyrics from Katharine Lee Bates’s America the Beautiful are part of my underlying inspiration. Buried in the 3rd verse, she wrote, “Till all success be nobleness.” We all should be seeking to be our best and noblest selves, but there are forces in the world pulling in less noble directions. Be forewarned that this post can be interpreted politically or through an historic religious lens. That’s not my intent. The point is simply that we should resist darker impulses and join together to elevate virtuous well-being for as many of us as we can muster. (Here’s Keb Mo singing my favorite version of “America the Beautiful” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcUx3I0k_Fw):

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In 2015, at a family dinner, I told my sister that if then-candidate Donald Trump were caught in a strong headwind, his hair would fly up, revealing the number 666 (the mark of the Beast) on his forehead. My sister said, “John, you’re being overly dramatic.”  She was right.

And so was I.

So many scenes and statements over the past month have been nauseating and shameful. When Trump, along with his #1 sycophant, JD Vance, berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (the only courageous person in the room), it was like a bad episode of an already failing reality television show. Trump likes to use the word disgrace to describe his adversaries. Trump was, is, and always will be a disgrace. As with most of his insults, “disgrace” is a projection that he pulls out of his own psyche and pastes onto others.

Musk and Trump are firing civil servants and dismantling government services. They have no concern for the lives of people they are destroying. One of their first targets was USAID. Why? Because USAID does kind, generous, and nice things for people across the globe who are in need and suffering. USAID does not promote crypto or cater to the well-heeled. For Musk and Trump, the suffering of others is sometimes collateral damage; other times being cruel is their point.

My new measure for politicians and other humans is kindness. USAID was doing more kind, generous, and compassionate things in one day, than Musk and Trump have done in their combined lifetimes. Marco Rubio recently announced that over 80% of USAID programming is cut. This is not a noble path.

If you don’t believe me, that’s fine. Do the research. Check it out. But don’t believe them. Mega-wealthy people who tell you they’re looking out for your best interests are nearly always lying. Trump and Musk didn’t get rich off their compassion; they got rich using, abusing, and scamming others.

My list of republican sycophants is long and boring. I’m thinking of Lindsey Graham and Rubio, but there are so many others. Most republicans don’t have Zelenskyy’s courage, so they insult him, or imply that he didn’t read the room. Seriously? He read the room with precision. His first option was to get screwed by Trump and Vance while acting like their lap dog. His second option was to stand strong in the face of their theatrical insults to fight for his country and his people. He chose the latter. There never was an option that was in Ukraine’s best interests. The situation was a set up; Zelenskyy took the only respectable option.

Many republicans recognize our democracy is at stake, but they cave to Trumpian bullying anyway. Spineless, led by their fear, they capitulate, even when they know that unpredictable tariffs are reaping chaos on the economy. They capitulate even when they know that pardoning January 6 rioters who attacked the police is wrong. They remain quiet and demur while a legal protester and recent graduate from Columbia University is arrested.

I’m in a fevered state. I may regret putting my thoughts into words, but what I’m saying is coming directly from the burning in my heart for noble causes. I love America. I love the goals and hard work of organizations like USAID. I love civil servants. I stand with them, with Zelenskyy, with peaceful protesters, with the Department of Education, to push back against the big gangsters in their big, imaginary thrones. 

If Evil had a plan, it might be this: Make the tired, hungry, and poor the enemy. Sow fear and distrust; grow it into jealousy and hate. Once the hate sprouts, attack the poor and disenfranchised. Cut federal education because of its great value to the poor and uselessness to the rich. Eliminate environmental protections for marginalized communities; let them breathe monoxide and drink brown water because their voices are easy to ignore or dismiss. Destroy USAID, because what wealthy person ever benefited from aid to the hungry or medicines for the sick? Convince the gullible to distrust medicine and question life-saving vaccines; only the affluent deserve to live long and healthy lives.

If Evil had a plan, it might be happening—even as you read these words. And the plan is profoundly Un-American.

But Evil is not a thing or a person. Evil, and all things we call Evil, are conceptual. The great Evil makes us all fall from grace. Evil plays the news cycle, promotes hate, stokes division, and makes us all less good, less happy, angrier, and less compassionate. I was wrong in 2015. If you look closely at Donald Trump’s forehead, you won’t see the numbers 666. He’s no concrete embodiment of Evil. Instead, if you look and listen closely, you’ll see and hear a large vacuous ego that seeks to fill itself with power, and by inspiring everyone to hate more and be less humane, because, quite frankly, that’s how “Evil” works.

Now is the time to put Evil in the rear-view mirror. We will need all our combined strength to make this happen. We need to reach out in kindness and compassion. We need to push back against messages of hate and division and policies that further decimate the poor and disenfranchised. We need to listen to the small, still voice in the night, the voice that knows our name, the voice beckoning us to embrace our better selves and noble natures.

Two Talks from this Week — Resources

This week I had a chance to do a couple presentations for a couple awesome groups.

On Monday, along with Victor Yapuncich, I presented a talk at Fairmont titled “Why We Should Be in Pursuit of Eudaimonia (Not just “Happiness”)” to the Rural Medical Training Collaborative of the Family Medicine Residency of Western Montana. The group was amazing, and we even got Evelyn and Shilo to sing with us at the end. Here are the ppts for the Fairmont talk:

Today, I had the honor to deliver the closing talk for Tamarack Grief Resource Center’s annual Grief Institute. Thanks Tina . . . for the amazing opportunity. It was fabulous to be with such an incredibly dedicated and compassionate group of professionals who are using their gifts to help people through the journey of grief. Here are the ppts for the Grief Institute:

Two Upcoming Events

Hi All,

I’ve got two events coming up, one sooner and one later.

This Friday, I’m doing the closing talk for Tamarack’s Grief Institute (which is on Thursday and Friday in Missoula, and available online too!).

This is late notice, as the end of day tomorrow (March 3) is the registration deadline. The whole Institute is worth attending. The fantastic Dr. Joyce Mphande-Finn kicks things off on Thursday morning. Then, the amazing Dr. Micki Burns takes over . . . and I’ll be bringing it home Friday afternoon. Check it out. Here’s a registration link:

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This June, I have the incredible fortune of joining Dr. Jeff Linkenbach and the renowned Montana Summer Institute in Big Sky, Montana (and Livestream) from June 17-20. Here’s a description of what’s happening!

Reimagining Community Health:

Uncovering Positive Norms and & Activating Hidden

Protective Factors

In Big Sky, Montana and via Livestream: June 17-20, 2025

Join us at the 2025 Montana Summer Institute for three and a half transformative days dedicated to advancing community well-being. Through thought-provoking keynotes, interactive workshops, and engaging discussions, you’ll explore innovative strategies that leverage positive norms and amplify protective factors.

Learn to uncover hidden community strengths, identify untapped opportunities, and craft impactful communications that drive meaningful change. With insights from leading experts and experienced practitioners, you’ll gain practical tools to reimagine your approach to data, messaging, and the people you serve—all through a positive, effective frame.

Don’t miss this opportunity to expand your expertise, deepen your impact, and shape healthier, more resilient communities. For more information, visit www.montanainstitute.com

Is there any chance you will join us in June? It would be wonderful to have you there! Here is the Montana Discount Code to give $100 off the price:  MSIMONT which would give $100 off registration

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And here’s a fancy flyer for the Montana Summer Institute:

A Declaration of Independence

Author Note: As simple and naïve as this may sound, my new subversive social message and political metric is kindness. The social message is intentional kindness. Kindness everywhere; kindness as often as we can muster. The political metric is, “Who is acting with kindness?” Let kindness be our judge.

Occasionally in my life, I’ve seen the future. This moderately delusional belief is related to my love of prediction. Right now, I see tomorrow’s opportunities unfolding. I’m sharing my vision here as a strategy for nudging these opportunities forward. The future I’m seeing is all about, “A Declaration of Independence.”

You might view this post as political. I’m sure it is. That said, my intent is humanitarian. I want people to be treated with respect and compassion. Again, think of kindness.  

Donald Trump has begun his presidency at a manic pace. This is a planned mania. He needs mania now, because his days are numbered; his days are numbered due to his age and the forthcoming midterm elections—when he could and should lose substantial power. He and his team can feel the clock ticking.

His mania is a confession of vulnerability. Approximately half the republican party lie in wait for their moment of emancipation . . . the moment to make their declaration of independence from Donald Trump.

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Dear Moderate Republicans,

This is your moment.

Now is the time to seize the day.

You have an unprecedented opportunity for heroism.

I know you can feel and sense this opportunity. You’re too smart and savvy to be ignorant of political opportunity. You must know that now is the time for you to stand up and do what’s right and good for the country and for the world.

Heroism requires self-sacrifice; it involves risk. You cannot achieve hero status without engaging in risky, humanitarian, and possibly sacrificial acts.

But you have a rare heroic opportunity to benefit OTHERS while simultaneously benefiting YOURSELF. Yes, there is still risk.

The risk involves standing up to Donald Trump. And, while that is a risk, most of the country and most of the world are waiting and hoping for someone to emerge who represents wise leadership. You know it’s not Elon Musk or J.D. Vance. It could be you.

Risk is frightening. Risk is also invigorating. Incredibly invigorating.

But why take a risk when you can—in poker terminology—stand pat, take no risk, and continue to experience a modest gain from remaining a status quo supporter of Donald Trump.

Here’s why.

You know in your heart how good it will feel to honor what you know to be true. To live your life with a clear conscience; to look yourself in the mirror and say, “I did something amazing.”

If following your heart and conscience needs a nudge, here are a few actions you’ve been asked to lie about—to yourself and to the American people:

  1. Allowing a vaccine-denier to serve as Secretary of Health and Human Services, a Fox News analyst as Secretary of Defense, a potential Russian asset as Secretary of Intelligence, and a professional wrestling executive for Secretary of Education. You know America deserves better.
  2. Replacing traditional federal oversight mechanisms (like Inspectors General) with Musk and his DOGE crew to cruelly eliminate what they judge to be waste in the federal system. You know the depth and breadth of Musk’s conflicts of interest. You know that giving him more power will not satiate his voracious hunger for even more power.
  3. Ignoring the dangers of reaching out to Putin and turning our backs on Ukraine.
  4. Pretending that creating a Gazan coastal resort to further the Trump/Musk empire is a just and viable road to peace in the Middle East.
  5. Giving the go-ahead to illegal and unregulated mass deportations and the repopulating of an unaccountable Guantanamo Bay.
  6. Acting as if the U.S. can unilaterally annex Canada, grab Greenland, and steal the Panama Canal.
  7. Trusting that global tariff wars will improve relationships with our allies or reduce the cost of eggs.
  8. And finally, you cannot give up your critically important constitutional responsibilities to rein in a power-hungry executive branch. The founding fathers created a system with separation of powers for times like these. Don’t let them down.

Now is the time to pick one or more of the preceding issues and stand firm in the face of the Donald Trump-Musk bloviating firestorm. You risk threats, name-calling, and manipulation; but, the majority of Americans (and global citizens) are waiting, hoping, and longing for YOU to step up and stand strong.

People will shower you with praise, affection, and much more power and attention than you’ll ever get by playing it safe as a quiet member of the Trumpian order.

By standing up for truth, you will be revered.

Honor your conscience. Be honest with yourself. Make Americans proud.

This is your moment.  

Be strong.

Positive Psychology and Eudaimonia for Greater Happiness and Health

Some late-breaking news . . .

Tomorrow morning, from 7:30am-8:30am (Mountain time), I’ll be presenting for the online Friday Medical Conference at St. Patrick Hospital. It’s free. All you need to do is click on the link below a couple minutes before the start time and join in.

When: Friday, 1/31
Time: 730am-830am
Where: Register Here: https://umontana.zoom.us/meeting/register/BvxjQYKCTY2Yybbh4bhltw

Below are the presentation ppts:

The Washington Foundation Awards $9.4M to the Phyllis J. Washington College of Education to Support Montana Teachers, School Counselors, and Positive Education

Hi All,

As predicted, I have great news today.

The University of Montana Foundation and the Phyllis J. Washington College of Education have just issued a press release announcing a $9.4M grant from the Dennis and Phyllis Washington Foundation to support positive education at the University of Montana and throughout the state. I am humbled to hear of this amazing support and immensely grateful to Phyllis Washington and the Washington Foundation for their vision and generosity.

Specifically, these funds will support the educational journey of prospective Montana teachers and school counselors and will grow our efforts to address the emotional and behavioral health of Montana educators and students through positive education. As you may know, thanks to a previous grant from the Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation, I’ve been very involved in promoting the principles of positive psychology and education throughout Montana. I look forward to continuing my work with Montana teachers and administrators. This incredibly generous grant will deepen our support for current and future Montana educators, including professional school counselors. Together, we will work to improve the emotional and behavioral health of young people in Montana and beyond.

If you have questions, please reach out to the names and numbers listed in the official press release.

All my best,

John S-F

P.S.: Along with my thanks to the Washington Foundation, in keeping with the principles of positive psychology, I want to emphasize my gratitude to Dr. Dan Lee, Dean of the Phyllis J. Washington College of Education, and the extremely competent and capable team of Erin Keenan, Erin White, and Jason Newcomer from the University of Montana Foundation. Of course, many of you who receive this message are also on my gratitude list. I hope you can feel good feelings deep inside yourselves about your own contributions to creating a better future for Montana youth, educators, and schools. I look forward to working collaboratively with all of you in the future.  

The Happiness for Teachers Course Starts Again the Week of January 20

If you’re an educator, you can sign up for the “Spring” version (starting in January) of our Happiness for Teachers course. This course has been very popular among teachers who have taken it. Here’s what one Montana educator emailed me first thing on January 1:

John, your course is fantastic!  It absolutely exceeded my high expectations, and I find myself reflecting on and applying things I’ve learned all the time.  There’s likely some recency bias, but I’m trying to think of another college course I have taken that is as meaningful and applicable for me. It has helped my overall happiness and well-being both personally and professionally, and it has given me the ideas and language to share with and support others (wife, children, students, coworkers, etc.).  Thank you! 

If you’re an educator or you want to share this information with an educator, read on for the details.

To Register

This semester, we have a reduced price for Rural Montana Educators: $95. We also have our usual extremely reduced price for Montana Educators for the Big Seven School Districts: $195. Either way, thanks to a grant from the Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation, the price is a bargain for 3 Grad Credits from the University of Montana.

Here are the links:

Big Seven Educators Open-Enrollment Section: https://www.campusce.net/umextended/course/course.aspx?C=712&pc=13&mc=&sc=

Rural Educators Section: https://www.campusce.net/umextended/course/course.aspx?C=732

Grading Options

Because we want to support teachers, our approach to grading is flexible. Teachers can select from one of three grading options.

  1. Teachers can receive 3 graduate credits from the University of Montana – graded using a Credit/No Credit system. That means you need to complete enough course assignments to obtain 70% (you can do more). Then you will pass the course and receive the credits. Even if you get an NCR in the course, you can qualify for a pro-rated number of OPI credits based on your percentage completion.
  2. Teachers can receive 3 graduate credits from the University of Montana – graded using a traditional “letter” grading system. Some school districts require a letter grade to count the course toward your payscale.
  3. You can receive up to 48 OPI credits. This option is especially useful if you find you’re unable to complete at least 70% of the assignments. You can receive a pro-rated total of OPI hours . . . depending on how many hours of the course you complete.

How Much Work will the Course Be?

This is a graduate-level course, and so there’s a significant workload. If you can take the course for credit/no credit (see above), then you only need to obtain 70%, which makes the workload lighter.

At the ½ point in the course, we will ask all participants to inform us how they want to take the course (for credit/no credit; for a letter grade; for OPI hours). If you get ½ way through the course and you think you’re not going to pass (or get the grade you want), then you can take it for OPI hours. In the end, even if you get an NCR in the course, you can still qualify for a prorated number of OPI hours.

To complete the whole course, teachers need to complete the following assignments:

Initial and Final Happiness Assessments (20 points each; 40 points total): During the first and final days of class you’ll be given a link to a happiness assessment packet via Qualtrics. We’re collecting this data to support the grant we have that enabled us to offer you this course at a steep discount.

Active Learning Assignments (complete 10 of the 14 options available; 10 points each; 100 total points): These are short assignments designed to get you in the habit of incorporating happiness-related activities into your life. These assignments are graded pass (10 points) or not pass (0 points). To get your 10 points you need to complete the bare minimum of a thoughtful response.

Weekly Discussion Board Postings and Comments (30 posts; total 60 points): We want you to engage with each other on how you might apply what you’re learning in this course. To encourage this, you’re assigned to make two posts each week (30 total posts). We’d like you to make one post about the weekly course content (lectures and other assigned content) and one post commenting on the post of someone else.

Development of One Educational Lesson Plan (3-5 pages; 40 points): Pick a topic from class (e.g., savoring, gratitude, acts of kindness, etc.) and then write a lesson plan that you could potentially use in your educational setting. You DO NOT need to implement these lesson plans; the assignment is only to create them.

Live online or recorded final pub quiz (30 points, plus prizes): During the last Unit of class John Sommers-Flanagan will hold a live and synchronous open pub-style happiness trivia quiz. If you participate live you can win prizes. Whether you participate live or watch the recording, you can earn 30 points by turning in the answers to the 30 happiness trivia questions.

Substitute (or Extra) Credit (40 points): You can engage in 5 or more sessions of individual counseling with a Master’s student at the University of Montana. You can use these points to substitute for another assignment, or as extra credit.

How Much Time will This Course Take?

  • The video-recorded lecture component of the course takes about 45 hours to view.
  • If you complete the whole course, assignments outside of class will take approximately an additional 100 hours.
  • For the Fall, 2024 version of the course, there will be 15 weeks—although you’ll be working at your own pace. Assuming you worked at an even pace over the 15 weeks, anticipating about 10 hours a week for the course is a reasonable estimate.

Our Goals

We want to support teachers because we view them as unappreciated, underpaid, and highly stressed by the demands of their jobs. We have three objectives:

  1. Offer a high quality and low-cost course to Montana teachers and other school personnel. The fee is $195 for 3-credits.
  2. Focus the course content on emotional wellness—teachers can apply this content to themselves, and possibly also apply it in their classrooms.
  3. By offering a 3-credit graduate course through the University of Montana, teachers may qualify for a salary bump.

Here are a couple of un-flashy memos describing the courses, just in case you want to download and share them. First, the Rural Educator section:

And here’s the flyer for Big Seven School District Educators.

Publication Alert — Broadening and Amplifying the Effects of Positive Psychology Courses on College Student Well-Being, Mental Health, and Physical Health

We have more good news for 2025. At long last, we’ve published a research article based on Dr. Dan Salois’s doctoral dissertation. Congratulations Dan!

This article is part of growing empirical support for our particular approaches to teaching positive psychology, happiness, and how people can live their best lives. As always, I want to emphasize that our approach is NOT about toxic positivity, as we encourage people to deal with the deep conflicts, trauma, and societal issues that cause distress — while also teaching strategies for generating positive affect, joyspotting, and other practices derived from positive psychology.

One of the big takeaways from Dr. Dan’s dissertation is that our happiness class format may produce physical health benefits. Also, it’s important to note that this publication is from early on in our research, and that our later research (currently unpublished) continues to show physical health benefits. Exciting stuff!

Here’s a link to the article. My understanding from the publisher is that only the first 50 clicks on this link can read/view the whole article.
https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/VXXD3ISCT7EUJ8WAM7UY/full?target=10.1080/07448481.2024.2446434

My 2025 Predictions

I’ve always been fascinated with prediction.

Maybe it was my mother’s interest in all things psychic? Maybe it was my father’s interest in gambling and the weather?

[For new predictions on what’s next in the socio-political scene, go here: https://johnsommersflanagan.com/2025/02/14/a-declaration-of-independence/]. For a new opinion piece on “How Evil Works” go here: https://johnsommersflanagan.com/2025/03/12/how-evil-works/

Whatever the influences, while in grad school, I got slightly obsessed with predicting human behavior. My four roommates were an inspiration. They were wonderful, and, they provided entertaining signs of four different DSM personality disorders. Although not officially “diagnosable,” they each had distinctive “features” of compulsive, histrionic, narcissistic, and dependent personality disorders.

[To learn more about how Donald J. Trump’s personality predicts his behaviors, check out this extended version of an article I wrote for Slate Magazine in 2018]: https://johnsommersflanagan.com/2018/09/03/the-long-version-of-the-trump-personality-slate-magazine-article/

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I was convinced I could predict the behavior of my roommates based on their personalities. As one example, during a group therapy session involving nickname-sharing, my so-called “narcissistic” friend shared that his nickname was “Lord.” As another, my “dependent” friend took to following me around and calling me his “hero.” I could go on, but this blogpost is about the future and not the past.

But first, four more historical reflections: (1) I developed my own totally bizarre personality test (the Sommers-Circles), (2) I did my thesis and dissertation on personality and prediction, (3) I discovered, as it turns out, personality is a rather poor predictor of human behavior, and (4) I also discovered that nothing is a very good behavioral predictor, and humans are more unpredictable than not.

Now, with my thesis 40 years behind me, and despite scientific evidence against anything being predictable, I still believe—as the famous/infamous social psychologist Daryl Bem wrote in 1974 (paraphrasing here), “That my predictions are right and the research is wrong.”

In honor of my lifelong prediction obsession, here are my Predictions for 2025.

  1. On January 8, I, along with the Montana Happiness Project, will announce big, luscious, and wonderful news.
  2. In early 2025, we will rediscover once again that, in fact, the body does NOT keep the score, but that the brain and body keep the score together, just as nature and nurture work together, despite annoying efforts by the misinformed to keep them apart.
  3. To rebalance our collective worldwide preoccupation during the first half of the 2020s with TRAUMA as being at the root of everything and everything being TRAUMA, the second half of the 2020s will be about growth and resilience in the face of stress and oppression.
  4. After January 20, Trump will continue to be Trump. What will that mean, specifically? First, he won’t suddenly become “presidential” (although the media will continue to expect him to). Second, he will lie about nearly everything, nearly all the time. Third, he will take credit for positive local and world events, and avoid or deflect responsibility for anything negative. Fourth, he will be cruel toward anyone he views as (a) beneath him or (b) unloyal. The corollary to this is that he will not be cruel toward Elon Musk or Vladimir Putin, but people like Laura Loomer will be left out to dry like laundry in the wind. Fifth, cracks will form within his circle of influence, which liberals will gleefully interpret as signs of his imminent fall, but he will carry on halfheartedly with his public agendas, and full-heartedly with his private agenda of making as much money as possible, while stomping on the poor, needy, and vulnerable.  
  5. Other than a few rogue reporters here and there, the press will continue to snuggle up to Trump in ways that make many of us feel sad about journalism.
  6. Similar to #3, other than a few rogue republicans, when it comes to Trump, the GOP will continue to be unable to find their voices, souls, and morals. . . in ways that make many of us discouraged about the future of the country. This charade of cooperation with emperor trump will begin deteriorating in the run-up to the midterm elections, unless the so-called emperor coalesces power in ways that allow him to destroy the constitution and democracy.
  7. The Buffalo Bills will defeat the Detroit Lions 36-30 in Super Bowl LIX.
  8. Around the time of the Super Bowl, Trump will fire someone from his cabinet. Although Ramaswamy would be likely, his position will only ever be pretend, and so his squeaky voice will only fade into the background.
  9. Auburn will defeat Duke, 80 to 76, for the NCAA basketball championship.
  10. The price of groceries will NOT come down. If anyone in the media has the courage to mention high grocery prices, Trump will blame it on Biden, Harris, Obama, “Crooked” Hillary, fake news, or whomever is most convenient.
  11. Global and local temperatures will continue to rise. Politicians and businesses with corporate interests in fossil fuels will continue to question climate science . . . just as they have since the 1950s, when Edward Teller and others began warning the world about carbon.
  12. The New York Mets will defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, in six games, partly due to Dodger’s manager Dave Roberts continued affinity with his “gut” over analytics.
  13. Suicide rates in the U.S. will remain stable, at or near modern highs.
  14. Taylor Swift will marry her boyfriend.
  15. The rate of worldwide species extinction will continue at unprecedented rates, matched only by the collective denial of politicians and corporations (which, as it turns out, are not people).
  16. Jennifer Lopez will marry Michael B. Jordan, resulting in J-Lo-Jo.
  17. At some point, someone will make the obvious point that even though the media loves rich people, most (not all) rich people have gotten rich through selfishness and greed, and consequently, putting rich people in charge of the country will not work out well for anyone other than the rich people.
  18. Like other predictions by famous pundits, no one will remember this blog, and consequently, I’ll be free to boldly, irresponsibly, and confidently make predictions for 2026, despite having no successful track record or credibility for making predictions.

But one thing is certain: January 8th will be big news day here. . . on this blog, and elsewhere. . . so stay tuned.

Happy New Year,

John

P.S.: Here’s a copy of the 1974 (Bem and Allen) article that inspired me to pursue the science of prediction.