I’ve always been fascinated with prediction.

Maybe it was my mother’s interest in all things psychic? Maybe it was my father’s interest in gambling and the weather?

[For new predictions on what’s next in the socio-political scene, go here: https://johnsommersflanagan.com/2025/02/14/a-declaration-of-independence/]. For a new opinion piece on “How Evil Works” go here: https://johnsommersflanagan.com/2025/03/12/how-evil-works/

Whatever the influences, while in grad school, I got slightly obsessed with predicting human behavior. My four roommates were an inspiration. They were wonderful, and, they provided entertaining signs of four different DSM personality disorders. Although not officially “diagnosable,” they each had distinctive “features” of compulsive, histrionic, narcissistic, and dependent personality disorders.

[To learn more about how Donald J. Trump’s personality predicts his behaviors, check out this extended version of an article I wrote for Slate Magazine in 2018]: https://johnsommersflanagan.com/2018/09/03/the-long-version-of-the-trump-personality-slate-magazine-article/

*****

I was convinced I could predict the behavior of my roommates based on their personalities. As one example, during a group therapy session involving nickname-sharing, my so-called “narcissistic” friend shared that his nickname was “Lord.” As another, my “dependent” friend took to following me around and calling me his “hero.” I could go on, but this blogpost is about the future and not the past.

But first, four more historical reflections: (1) I developed my own totally bizarre personality test (the Sommers-Circles), (2) I did my thesis and dissertation on personality and prediction, (3) I discovered, as it turns out, personality is a rather poor predictor of human behavior, and (4) I also discovered that nothing is a very good behavioral predictor, and humans are more unpredictable than not.

Now, with my thesis 40 years behind me, and despite scientific evidence against anything being predictable, I still believe—as the famous/infamous social psychologist Daryl Bem wrote in 1974 (paraphrasing here), “That my predictions are right and the research is wrong.”

In honor of my lifelong prediction obsession, here are my Predictions for 2025.

1. On January 8, I, along with the Montana Happiness Project, will announce big, luscious, and wonderful news.
2. In early 2025, we will rediscover once again that, in fact, the body does NOT keep the score, but that the brain and body keep the score together, just as nature and nurture work together, despite annoying efforts by the misinformed to keep them apart.
3. To rebalance our collective worldwide preoccupation during the first half of the 2020s with TRAUMA as being at the root of everything and everything being TRAUMA, the second half of the 2020s will be about growth and resilience in the face of stress and oppression.
4. After January 20, Trump will continue to be Trump. What will that mean, specifically? First, he won’t suddenly become “presidential” (although the media will continue to expect him to). Second, he will lie about nearly everything, nearly all the time. Third, he will take credit for positive local and world events, and avoid or deflect responsibility for anything negative. Fourth, he will be cruel toward anyone he views as (a) beneath him or (b) unloyal. The corollary to this is that he will not be cruel toward Elon Musk or Vladimir Putin, but people like Laura Loomer will be left out to dry like laundry in the wind. Fifth, cracks will form within his circle of influence, which liberals will gleefully interpret as signs of his imminent fall, but he will carry on halfheartedly with his public agendas, and full-heartedly with his private agenda of making as much money as possible, while stomping on the poor, needy, and vulnerable.  
5. Other than a few rogue reporters here and there, the press will continue to snuggle up to Trump in ways that make many of us feel sad about journalism.
6. Similar to #3, other than a few rogue republicans, when it comes to Trump, the GOP will continue to be unable to find their voices, souls, and morals. . . in ways that make many of us discouraged about the future of the country. This charade of cooperation with emperor trump will begin deteriorating in the run-up to the midterm elections, unless the so-called emperor coalesces power in ways that allow him to destroy the constitution and democracy.
7. The Buffalo Bills will defeat the Detroit Lions 36-30 in Super Bowl LIX.
8. Around the time of the Super Bowl, Trump will fire someone from his cabinet. Although Ramaswamy would be likely, his position will only ever be pretend, and so his squeaky voice will only fade into the background.
9. Auburn will defeat Duke, 80 to 76, for the NCAA basketball championship.
10. The price of groceries will NOT come down. If anyone in the media has the courage to mention high grocery prices, Trump will blame it on Biden, Harris, Obama, “Crooked” Hillary, fake news, or whomever is most convenient.
11. Global and local temperatures will continue to rise. Politicians and businesses with corporate interests in fossil fuels will continue to question climate science . . . just as they have since the 1950s, when Edward Teller and others began warning the world about carbon.
12. The New York Mets will defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, in six games, partly due to Dodger’s manager Dave Roberts continued affinity with his “gut” over analytics.
13. Suicide rates in the U.S. will remain stable, at or near modern highs.
14. Taylor Swift will marry her boyfriend.
15. The rate of worldwide species extinction will continue at unprecedented rates, matched only by the collective denial of politicians and corporations (which, as it turns out, are not people).
16. Jennifer Lopez will marry Michael B. Jordan, resulting in J-Lo-Jo.
17. At some point, someone will make the obvious point that even though the media loves rich people, most (not all) rich people have gotten rich through selfishness and greed, and consequently, putting rich people in charge of the country will not work out well for anyone other than the rich people.
18. Like other predictions by famous pundits, no one will remember this blog, and consequently, I’ll be free to boldly, irresponsibly, and confidently make predictions for 2026, despite having no successful track record or credibility for making predictions.

But one thing is certain: January 8^th will be big news day here. . . on this blog, and elsewhere. . . so stay tuned.

Happy New Year,

John

P.S.: Here’s a copy of the 1974 (Bem and Allen) article that inspired me to pursue the science of prediction.